Saturday, December 4, 2010

Eyecatchers 29 November - 5 December 2010

LEADING THE WEEK:

Without a doubt, the story underpinning all the other stories this week was WIKILEAKS. It started at the beginning of the week, with the release of hundreds of thousands of secret government documents and cables.

The mass release left media outlets all over the world asking themselves what guidelines to use when deciding to publish or not to publish.

Amongst the most entertaining leaks were the revelations of American diplomats' thoughts of leaders around the world. My favorites:

Nicolas Sarkozy: "Has a thin-skinned and authoritarian personal style" and is "an emperor with no clothes."
Silvio Berlusconi: "Feckless, vain, and ineffective as a modern European leader."
Dmitry Medvedev: "Plays Robin to Putin's Batman" and is "pale and hesitant."
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: "Like Hitler."


While these highlights were entertaining at first glance, their release sparked a global diplomatic crisis for the United States.

As Hilary Clinton seethed over the leaks, the Economist's Democracy in America blog saw the upside of the leaks.

On top of the current batch of leaks, WikiLeaks' next target is widely expected to be a major US bank.

Of course, that new round of leaks might be delayed while WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange runs from Interpol, who announced a "red notice" this week for his arrest in connection to an ongoing rape investigation.

Interesting.....I didn't know Interpol got involved in Scandinavian rape cases.

And then the site came crashing down. Allegedly, patriotic American hackers attacked the site so many times that its web host could no longer keep it running. So now WikiLeaks is in a fight to survive.

IN OTHER ONLINE NEWS

Twitter is looking to raise $3bn to fuel its drive to become a profitable business.

Meanwhile, the ever-profitable Google attempted to buy Groupon for $6bn. However, the latest word has it that Groupon are rejecting Google's offer.

THE DEFICIT BATTLE CONTINUES

Each day this week brought us closer to Friday's highly anticipated release of the final Simpson-Bowles deficit reduction plan (below):

DeficitPanelReport_120110

Momentum for an actionable deficit plan finally began to emerge, with the release of several alternative plans. Paul Krugman pointed out the Progressive Deficit Plan on his blog. Ezra Klein spoke with commissioner Andy Stern, who has his own plan, which tackles not just America's budget deficit but also its long-term government investment deficit. As he points out, with the short-term incentives offered by elections, it's tough for elected officials to vote for investment in the future at the expense of voters in the present. Klein's story also has links to plans from Rep. Jan Schakowsky and Alice Rivlin. And of course, there's always Paul Ryan's Roadmap for America's Future, which one could argue opened up the debate in the first place.

Speaking of Paul Ryan, he wrote in Investor's Business Daily this week that the Fed should refocus on its original mission of ensuring price stability rather than its more recent goal of promoting "maximum employment."

On the other hand, Paul Krugman argues that if Republicans force the Fed to focus only on a stable dollar we'll be locking ourselves into the same "prison" the Spanish have found themselves in as a result of being trapped by the Euro.

THE REST OF THE ECONOMY....

...is still grinding along slowly. Friday's payrolls numbers and unemployment rate disappointed massively, with global markets dropping on news that unemployment had risen again to 9.8%.

And while it's not new news (in fact, it was out last month and I just didn't notice), a whopping 14% of the US population is using food stamps.

COMINGS AND GOINGS...

Former White House budget director Peter Orszag is widely expected to take a senior role at Citi. As a protege of Robert Rubin, who joined Citi after serving as Treasury Secretary in the Clinton administration, his choice comes as no surprise.


On the Senate floor, Sen. John McCain saluted Russ Feingold, who lost his re-election campaign last month. And Chris Dodd yielded the floor for the last time.

FOR THOSE STILL ON THE POLITICAL SCENE

Obama froze pay for federal employees. Speaking of trimming the expenses, even new Congressmen will be sleeping in their offices.

Joe Scarborough tells the GOP that they should take on Palin. The not-so-secret secret? He's right. Here's hoping they listen.

Boehner and McConnell told Obama to heed the voters. And then their earmark ban failed. (Quiz for Wisconsin voters: guess which of your senators was one of only seven Democrats to vote for the ban?)

On the other hand, food safety reform passed in the Senate but may be blocked in the House due to a technicality.

OUTSIDE THE STATES

The rise of emerging markets is the world's biggest trend. That must be why The Economist examined the dangers of a rising China.

The US and South Korea just agreed on a new trade agreement, making it the biggest trade pact since NAFTA.

And Ireland is for sale? (The page is a tad old, but still classic).

OTHER GOOD STUFF

Bill Gates discusses trade, optimism, and aid in Africa. Which is timely, as he (along with Warren Buffett) top Foreign Policy magazine's list of the Top 100 Thinkers.


Drew Brees was selected Sports Illustrated's Sportsman of the Year. Meanwhile, Derek Jeter's been negotiating with the Yankees for more money.

Russia trounced England (represented by the ultimate triumvirate: David Cameron, Prince William, and David Beckham) in the race to host the World Cup in 2018.

In an even bigger (and more confusing) upset, Qatar beat the US and Australia for the right to host in 2022.

Qatar? Are you serious? Nate Silver's 538 blog looks at just HOW RIDICULOUS that choice is.

HAPPY HOLIDAYS

It's that time of the year. Obama celebrated Hannukah this week and the White House Christmas tree is up. Check out the time lapse video here.

Monday, November 29, 2010

This Week's Eyecatchers (22 - 28 October)

The Hot Button Issue? Air Security Meets Holiday Travel

Scientists finally resolved the TSA scanner objections. Now if only they could figure out how to prevent delayed flights around the holidays, we'd really be getting somewhere.

But would you look at how pretty the flight patterns are. The New York Times' Revkin shares one of his favorite animations, which tracks our airborne movements.

Other Cool Stuff


The History Channel attempts to translate Top Gear into American. But can it be done? As the article points out: The genius of the enterprise, however, lies in the byplay and interaction of the hosts, Jeremy Clarkson, Richard Hammond and James May. They are smart, talented middle-age men obsessed with mutual ego destruction, adolescent antics and cars. And they pursue those obsessions so amusingly that, because of the BBC’s worldwide distribution, a generous budget and hundreds of clips on YouTube, a large chunk of the world’s population loves them. Let's face it. No matter how hard you try, you just can't replace Jeremy Clarkson's ridiculousness. Like that time he drove a Rolls Royce into a swimming pool. Or raced a rock climber up a mountain.

Or how about that time they raced a Bugatti Veyron against a fighter jet? Or chased an SUV with a pack of foxhounds? (Part 1 and Part 2.)

Weigh in: What's your favo(u)rite Top Gear moment?

Looking for a job? Goldman Sachs offers some crucial interview tips.

And the game everyone was playing over the holiday? Fix the US budget deficit! It's fun for the whole family!
What would you cut? What would you save?

This is probably the best NYTimes graphic since their '09 Thanksgiving food search graphic. Which of those recipes did you Google this year?

But back to the deficit.....Ezra Klein says the numbers add up, but not the votes. And the Washington Post points out five myths about cutting the deficit.

Consensus finally begins to form around deficit fixes. And Greg Mankiw writes why the Simpson-Bowles plan works.

In other economic news:

The Fed projects elevated joblessness through the 2012 elections. Let's see what the Tea Party thinks of that. But don't make the Fed itself a political football.....Tim Geithner warns the GOP not to politicize the Fed.

Sad news of the week: Velma Hart, the woman who confessed her financial fears directly to Obama in a town hall meeting lost her job. And the business community says Obama's economic outreach is not enough.

Meanwhile, Meredith Whitney found a new job, starting her own rating agency. Wonder what she'll give the US government to begin with. And good luck to all those companies out there vying for a AAA rating. Think she'll be pretty stingy with those.

On the global scene.... ... it was all about Ireland.

First they didn't want a bailout. Then they applied for one. Which was probably a good thing, since even Mohamed El-Erian thinks they're screwed. “What you advise your sister in Ireland now is that you’d say take your money out of an Irish bank and put it in another bank headquartered elsewhere,” El-Erian said. “That’s what happened in Argentina and in emerging economies. People worry about their savings."

Some other great quotes about Ireland: from politicians, officials, and commentators:

1. Spain is not Greece - Elena Salgado, Spanish Finance
Minister, ~February, 2010.
2. Portugal is not Greece - The Economist, 22nd April, 2010.
3. Greece is not Ireland - George Papaconstantinou, Greek
Finance Minister, 8th November 2010.
4. Spain is neither Ireland nor Portugal - Elena Salgado,
Spanish Finance Minister, 16th November, 2010.
5. Neither Spain nor Portugal is Ireland - Angel Gurria,
secretary-general of the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development (OECD), 18th November, 2010.

But after proposing a four year austerity plan, the Irish finally got their bailout.

But Spain will be the biggie!!!

Back in the US....

The Republican dark horse still has no name. Unless you count Chris Christie?

And Al Gore finally conceded that corn ethanol was not a good policy. Thank you for coming around, Mr. Gore.

Other people changing their stripes? The pope himself! Finally the Vatican shows signs of softening its hardline stance on condoms.

And if you were really off the grid this past week,

I can't wrap this post up without mentioning KOREA.

The North shelled the South, killing and injuring several people and sparking an international uproar.

Perhaps they'll finally sit down at a table and negotiate an effective peace accord. Or perhaps they'll stay like the ANGRY BIRDS, who distract the rest of the world day in and day out and never seem to be able to make peace.

What's on tap this week?

More WikiLeaks. The New York Times has the war logs. The Guardian has the US Embassy cables. Wikipedia's co-founder, Larry Sanger, considers WikiLeaks an enemy not just of the American government, but also of the American people. Perhaps military and diplomatic secrets should remain secret after all?

Other things to look forward to:

December arrives, Chanukah begins, and back in DC the Republicans will meet with Obama.

Sunday, November 21, 2010

This Week's Eyecatchers (14 - 20 November)

The two most overdue news items of the week:

Apple adds the Beatles to the iTunes catalog.

Will and Kate are getting married! Watch their first interview here. Will you be at the wedding?


In other news:

Ted Koppel strikes out at Olbermann, O'Reilly, and the death of real news. View Olbermann's response here.

Plus, MSNBC suspends Joe Scarborough, proving that they are not only more nonpartisan but also even more stupid than we all thought. C'mon guys..... Haven't we had enough of this?

Economically speaking:

WIRED Magazine shows how the global economy was networked for failure. Sounds roughly similar to one of former Secretary of the Treasury Robert Rubin's conclusions from the Mexican financial crisis, Asian financial crisis, and the tech bubble.

The FT's Lex thinks Californians are dreaming.

Quantitative Easing takes the stage for an encore:

Nouriel Roubini says it's not inflationary. The conservative folks at E21 (including Cliff Asness, James Chanos, Niall Ferguson, Claremont McKenna's Greg Hess, and William Kristol) tell Ben Bernanke why it's bad.

YouTube tells us what it is:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTUY16CkS-k
(
if you click on only one link from this post, this is the one to choose)

The New York Fed's Bill Dudley says it's not intended to weaken the dollar.

Bernanke supports Obama and criticizes China.

The Economist blogs:
Does monetary protectionism lead to trade protectionism? And Nick Kristof asks asks if we’re in a Banana Republic or a Hedge Fund Republic.

Budgeting Away

Fareed Zakaria says it's time for the US to face up to the deficit. Joe Klein says we're ignoring everything else.


The Economist lays out the budget mess and tells the newly elected government how to "Confront the Monster." Which brings us to...

...The New Freshman Class of the 112th Congress...


...who arrived this week in DC to learn how to be Congresspeople. And finally saw firsthand the lack of professionalism and general poor form of the Tea Party Patriots, who inundated certain members' new Blackberries with a flood of voicemails.

I'm sure they all paid attention close attention to their ethics classes as Charles Rangel was formally censured.

And don't forget: Lisa Murkowski (did I spell it right?) won her write-in campaign in Alaska.

Who's the coolest new member? Could be ex-reality-TV-star and new Wisconsin representative Sean Duffy, who even got to take a front-line role in the crackdown on earmarks, as did Obama, McConnell, and hopefully the rest of our government. (Perhaps this item should have been in the overdue news stories at the top of the post.)

What else happened this week?

Everyone bitched about airport security. Roger Ailes bitched about everything else, particularly Obama's failures, NPR's "Nazis", and Jon Stewart's craziness.

Looking forward to 2012 yet?

Sarah Palin is. Take a look at the team hoping to put her in front of the GOP pack for 2012. Or take a look at the GQ profile of her Democratic counterpart in 2008, Joe Biden.

Could it be Bloomberg/Scarborough in 2012? Wouldn't that be fun? However there's still no Bloomberg or Scarborough for Prez contract on inTrade. While they'd probably opt for the Independent ticket, tn the race to be the GOP nominee, both are trading at just about zero.

Fancy taking a punt? The contract on whether or not Bloomberg will announce trades at an unimaginably wide spread, implying anywhere froma 10 - 85% chance of him doing so.

Other contracts for 2012:
Romney's down from 24.8 last week to 22.6
this week.
Dems have a 56% implied probability of holding the Presidency.
Trump for President 2012? Please, God, no! Thankfully it's not really trading and only implies a tiiiiiny probability for the "The Donald."

In Europe

The big story was the potential Irish bailout. To bail, or not to bail, that is the question? Whether 'tis nobler....

The trusted folks at the Economist show how they got into this mess and provide their opinion on how to get out while saving the euro.


Shameless plug of the week

Take a quick gander at the current state of the European property market, in an article by my former flatmate Steve.

And finally something that does some good in this world.....Microfinance

The question of the week: is microfinance in India becoming like the subprime market in the US?
And should there be a cap on the interest rates microlenders charge?

Looking forward to the next week?

Thanksgiving in the US means lots of food for everyone. And are you ready for some football? New England at Detroit at 12:30 ET, New Orleans at Dallas at 4:15 ET, and Cincinnati at NY Jets at 8:20 ET.

Go to bed early or stay up all night so you can be the first one at the store on Black Friday.



See you next week,
Chris