Back to the Badger State

Even though I've been away from home for awhile, politics back in Wisconsin still feel like my "local politics." Because of that, and despite the fact that all the big papers and bloggers nationwide are focusing their attention on the Tea Party Express and the impending disaster it appears to be causing in New York and Delaware, I thought I'd focus on a smaller race, one off most peoples' radar screens.

My attention was focused on Chad Lee, the winner of the WI-2 GOP primary. With 99% of precincts reporting, he won 53% to 47%, taking 24,882 votes (vs. 22,378 for Peter Theron, who looked like he was barely campaigning).

Assuming all 47,260 GOP primary voters show up and vote for him in the general election, he'll have to bring out a LOT more of the base and convert some middle-of-the roaders. While I don't have any data on the district's historical voter turnout, the 2000 census put the population at 670,457, so even in a mid-term election, it's probably safe to assume at least 125,000 voters will show up on November 2nd.

He'll also have to get over the lack of name recognition, especially when compared to Tammy Baldwin, a widely known incumbent who's been in office since 1999 and took 70% of the vote in 2008 (when running against Theron). This may be difficult given he's still only raised $53,663 through Aug. 25th vs. Baldwin's $931,147 and has only $4,081 on hand to fight her $775,775 war chest.

The odds don't look too good for Mr. Lee right now. But you never know. After all, Paladino took the GOP gubernatorial nod in NY, O'Donnell came from nowhere to win the GOP Senate nomination in Delaware, and a former MTV Real World star is the GOP candidate for Dave Obey's well-worn seat in Congress. Strange things are happening this year. Maybe we shouldn't count out the underdogs going into the general elections.